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NVDA's AI Factory: Underestimated Economic Leverage
@extiger
Long term value investor, trained with some greats at 101 park. Long biased but occasional short alpha.
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Trending on the books
Out of favour calls
The board
Top areas of pending crash
TrendingMost off consensus
01Artificial intelligenceThe liquidity risk nobody priced into the AI build out, and who is funding it all
$NVDA$MSFT$ORCL$CRWV$AMD
Crash meter
5/5
02Short opportunitiesPeak rent is not a margin, it is a moment
$TKO
Crash meter
4/5
03Private creditThe interest is being paid in paper, not money
$ARCC$FSK$OBDC$BXSL$OWL$ARES
Crash meter
4/5
04Capital returnsThat is not a buyback, it is a payroll run
$CRM$SNOW$WDAY$AAPL$AZO$ORLY
Crash meter
3/5Theme 01 / Artificial intelligence
The liquidity risk nobody priced into the AI build out, and who is funding it all
The demand is real and nobody serious disputes it. The way it is being financed is a different question entirely.
$NVDA$MSFT$ORCL$CRWV$AMD
Read the theme Off consensus5/5
More themes
02Short opportunitiesPeak rent is not a margin, it is a moment
Over earning candidates where the current margin depends on an input that has not repriced yet.
$TKO
Off consensus4/5
Read the theme Crash meter
4/5
In the frame
Updated Oct 6
03Private creditThe interest is being paid in paper, not money
Payment in kind income and model driven marks in a market that has never been tested.
$ARCC$FSK$OBDC$BXSL$OWL$ARES
Off consensus4/5
Read the theme Crash meter
4/5
In the frame
Updated Oct 6
04Capital returnsThat is not a buyback, it is a payroll run
Gross repurchases presented as shareholder return while stock compensation absorbs most of it.
$CRM$SNOW$WDAY$AAPL$AZO$ORLY
Off consensus3/5
Read the theme Crash meter
3/5
In the frame
Updated Oct 6